Future of wearables

I don’t really like the current set of wearable offerings. I’ve used the Nike Fuel Band, Jawbone Up and the Basis. Initially, the novelty is cool, but in the end they all fall short as none of them are really accurate enough or fully featured enough to be anything more than a gimmick.

In the future, I think wearables should make the assumption that you already have a smartphone in your pocket, and so they can communicate with the smartphone directly for the majority of the day. This way, design of the wearable can focus on capturing information that a smartphone can’t capture as well (like movement or heart rate). The wearable can then send this data to the phone to do the number crunching and get increased accuracy by combining similar data that is captured by the phone or other wearables. If you combine multiple sources capturing similar things, you can vastly increase the accuracy of the data. It’s how mobile location data become so much more precise – gps, cell tower and wifi data all combined together.

The one health tracking tool I actually really like is the Withings scale. I like having a historical view of my weight and how it wirelessly syncs to a server somewhere so I never have to think about inputting the data, but can access it and use it in conjunction with other apps such as Lose It as I find useful. I think it does a good job of focusing on being a sensor and a display for weight without trying to do too much.

Once we improve the quality of the data from wearables and increase the number of types of sensors (breathing, heart rate, sleep, movement, weight, food intake etc) then we’ll be able to draw really awesome insight by combining information from lots of different sources to get a better picture of overall health and track changes over time.

It could be interesting if my doctor had a dashboard with all the inputs from my wearables and can see long term trends as well as use this information to help diagnose current or future conditions based on what’s happened in between visits.

Mobile software technology (primarily OS)

I spent some time writing down some of the things that bother me about using my mobile phone, and thought I would share some improvements that I think would make using my phone even better. Apple’s IOS 8 and Google’s Kit Kat are addressing much of it.

  • Web links over email and text – There should be a way for the OS or browser to detect whether or not an app is installed and try to open up the app (deep linked), resorting to the web view only if opening up the app fails. This would provide a better experience for user as well as an opportunity to increase app engagement, and should become standard very quickly. I think this could work by the browser going to the website and the website creating a custom deep linked url that it tries to open through the app; if it fails, then it goes to the web view. There might be a cleverer way to do it though. It’s surprising to me that apps like LinkedIn don’t work this way – I often get a link to someone’s profile and it’ll never redirect to the app – this should be the defacto, not a crappy mobile web view that requires login, etc.

  • Method of for applications to talk to each other – IOS and Android need to define an app API with a common set of things as well as custom calls that can allow apps to talk to each other in real time and share data. This would allow aggregators to become much more powerful on mobile and other apps that pull in data from multiple apps in real time, and will open up a whole new class of application. This may currently be solvable by creating server APIs, but it’s less easy than apple or google creating a common format that can be shared locally.  An example of a use case would be getting transport from A->B and an aggregator showing me the best option from uber, lyft, taxi, bus etc.

  • Search in-app content – I should be able to search on my home screen for content embedded within apps / over search. I.e., Searching on my phone should be much more powerful and personalized than it is now. It’ll be a little complicated to figure out the balance of showing content that is local vs. online or layering in additional data (e.g. what apps I use most) in the ranking system, but these are likely solvable problems. e.g. I should be able to search for ski trip and the results are a combination of texts, email, evernote, etc. Google is far ahead of Apple here but IOS 8 is starting to bridge the gap

  • Wearables as an input/sensor – The future of wearables is collecting data that your phone is ill suited to collect and then either having its own ability to transmit data to a server or using the phone/internet connection on the phone to crunch the data and transmit data to the user through the wearable in a format that makes sense. The synergy between the 2 devices (phone + wearable) is where I think things get very interesting because then the size of wearables can go vastly down (lower power consumption, less high tech, smaller size).

  • Seamless transfer from web<=>mobile Products that have websites and apps should have a common backend that allows you to pick up on your app where you left off on your computer and vice versa. Examples are yelp or google maps. Again I think android is far ahead of iOS if you’re a power user of google products.

Founding a Company – When?

I don’t think that I am a born entrepreneur. I think that I can see opportunity and potential, and have some ideas but I’ve not yet taken the plunge to start my own business. The truth is that I am pretty risk averse. I have been interested in technology for a while now, but only been considering the entrepreneurial path for the past 2-3 years.

There are lots of schools of thought about what stage in your personal and professional career to start a venture but I think that the two most important things are:

  • Market Opportunity – You need to have spent some time with your target market and understand where significant gaps lie. Finding a solution for these gaps is the next step, but it’s likely that your original idea will evolve significantly as your try and address these gaps. The balance of having a strong vision for your product yet knowing when you need to change direction is a key skill for successful entrepreneurs.
  • Being Ready – You have got to feel like you are ready to start your own company and have faith in your skills and and abilities. And whatever you lack, you need to have the faith that you’ll be able to figure it out or surround yourself with people you trust that can figure it out for you..
I have really not felt ready yet, and it’s a function of not finding the right market opportunity but also not having enough faith in myself yet. I feel that I need to build a successful product under the guidance of someone who has proven themselves before I do it on my own. 
In the end everyone has their own threshold for risk and when to start a company is a very personal call, but I hope to build some awesome products at my current company (Pocket Gems) which are profitable businesses too. I really hope it works out, but regardless, I’m super excited about the journey.

Socially responsible & For profit capital for emerging markets – a better model?

The inspiration for this post was my Business at the Base of the Pyramid class at Harvard Business School and it’s something that I have been pondering as I consider being an early stage investor in East African technology businesses.

There are two main kinds of capital deployed to emerging markets to stimulate economic activity for small businesses:
  •  Social(Not for Profit) Capital – This kind of capital is usually issued by governments, charitable foundations or entities like the World Bank/IFC and makes up the majority of investment capital to small businesses from abroad
  • For Profit Capital – Investors looking for returns which are as high as possible from emerging markets to compensate them for the high risk of their investments
I think the best model for emerging markets is a hybrid form of for profit capital from socially responsible investors. i.e. Investors who are looking to make a reasonable return on their investment without exploiting the recipients of their capital. 

One of the key problems of investing in social (not for profit) enterprises is that it does not create the incentives for these businesses to scale into self-sustaining entities. If businesses are accountable to their investors to yield positive unit economics and positive returns they are less likely to operate in a lean and efficient manner. Commerical enterprises are just better designed to create long term value for their shareholders, employees and (hopefully) customers provided they are ethically run.
I think that initiatives such as Root Capital and the Grass Roots Business Fund are trying some extremely interesting innovative models and hopefully we’ll see some positive results from them.

Figuring out a more effective way to deploy capital to emerging markets is a huge problem and I really hope that such innovations make strides towards solving it.

Alleviating poverty through education and entrepreneurship

I’m a believer in two key methods to alleviate poverty and stimulate long-term economic growth for developing countries:
  •  Education – Out of all children in Kenya about 85% of children attend primary school (but <50% finish), 24% of children attend secondary school, and 2% attend higher institutions. At this level of attrition more than half the population has not even completed primary school, which is typical of developing African countries. Access to knowledge and information is a critical part of opportunity creation for people in Africa.
  • Entrepreneurship – This is Africa’s (and Kenya in particular) ticket to stimulating the economy from the ground up. Governments are corrupt and policy is extremely slow and ineffective. Creating and facilitating an entrepreneurial mindset and ecosystem for people in these countries with the drive to create businesses which solve fundamental issues has got to be the way to sustainably get these countries out of poverty.
This is such huge topic and my paragraph above does not really even scratch the surface, but I want to write more often, in bite sized chunks going forward. For each of these issues, work needs to be done at both an infrastructural/country level and at a grass roots level. I believe that we will see quicker more effective results through bottom up initiatives so long as we are able to find and fund the scaleable and effective solutions at this level.

Next post will be about what type of investment could work for developing countries at this level.

Kenya – Silicon Safari

San Francisco has Silicon Valley, New York has Silicon Alley, London has Silicon Round and Tel-Aviv has Silicon Wadi. I think Kenya could have Silicon Safari*, and I’d love to be part of making that happen.

I never really thought I would go back to Kenya, but when I was back home this summer I had a strong feeling that it could be the forefront of innovation and entrepreneurship in Africa.

A little about where Kenya is today…
Kenya has about 30M people and a GDP per capita of $1,600 ppp Kenya is a leader in mobile innovation in the developing world. Kenya currently has a mobile penetration rate of ~ 50% and is forecasted to hit 90%+ by 2013. M-Pesa (mobile-to-mobile money transfer through text) was created here by Safaricom (part owned by Vodafone) and now almost $30M are transacted every day. This model has been replicated in many emerging markets which look to Kenya as a leader in emerging mobile products – particularly in banking and payments.

In October 2010, Barclays started offering M-Pesa to it’s clients and we are not far from a place where mobile phone ‘bank accounts’ can offer most services provided by traditional banks which have a far lower penetration rate than mobile phones in Kenya. In September 2010, a major carrier (Zain) cut all call costs by 75% and all the other major carriers followed suit. With infrastructure capital costs already paid off, the market is highly competitive and consumers are getting excellent quality of service at constantly decreasing prices.

I’m not the only one who sees potential in Kenya… 
(work in progress)
  • Techcrunch, Sarah Lacy in particular, did a piece in August 2010 about the possibilities of mobile in Kenya 
  • Google opened their first non-sales office in Kenya in 2007 and is tasked with figuring out their entire Africa strategy
The Entrepreneurial Ecosystem is underdeveloped…
  • Talent – Classic brain drain coupled with an underdeveloped local education system particularly in for technical talent is a HUGE issue. 
  • Capital – There is little capital for early stage ventures and few investors on the ground who have the appetite and expertise to invest in entrepreneurs. The path to exit is also unclear with underdeveloped capital markets and low M&A volume.
  • Community – We need to build a community for entrepreneurs and investors to find each other and share ideas and best practices. This is starting with initiatives like vc4africa, and Nairobi’s IHub but these are still in their very early stages
What I’m hoping to do…
I moved to Silicon Valley to see how the most sophisticated entrepreneurial ecosystem in the world works. I am about to start working for an early stage start up, and am going to try and be as involved in the start-up community as possible. I want to learn as much as I can so when I do go home, I know what could be possible for Kenya.

I don’t know exactly what I’m going to do or how I’m going to do it when I do return to Kenya, but what I do know is that I want to build technology businesses as both an entrepreneur and an investor (maybe some sort of hybrid incubation model would work best). The country needs pioneers for the field and I hope to be one of the people to build the bricks of the entrepreneurial ecosystem.

* Silicon Safari is a term that I made up! Hope it catches on 🙂 Silicon Savannah was something else I was toying with..

Digital Sky Technologies – The Mini Exit

Digital Sky Technologies (DST) have created a new class of investment in the western world that has caught both the entrepreneurial community and investment community by surprise. They have purchesed significant minority stakes in extremely high profile pre-IPO technology companies such as Zynga, Facebook and Groupon.

They take long positions on these companies by buying large amounts ($100M+) of common stock at relatively high valuations. Traditional investors (venture capital and private equity) would look to invest for preferential equity, board representation and sometimes controlling stakes but DST seem to be happy to take minority common stock with no board representation. Basically, they trust the market leaders with capital to keep doing what they’ve been doing and it’s working out well for them so far. Their $200M investment in Facebook at a $10Bn valuation is already up by 4x, and their $180M investment in Zynga is probably between 2-3x up as well.

I think that the key benefit they are providing to the founders and early employees of these companies is the option to partially cash out without having to prematurely exit or IPO. This has never really been an option for the founders and early employees of these successful technology businesses and it seems to have been mutually beneficial for both DST and the early stage founders.